Top 5 Takeaways from the 2023 Census for Property Professionals

National decline in children:

New Zealand has experienced a ‘baby bust’ - the number of children aged under 10 years declined across New Zealand, from 617,000 in 2018, to 600,000 in 2023, a decline of 17,000.  By comparison, for the 5-years leading up to 2018, the number of children increased by 39,000.  This was most pronounced in the large urban centres, with Auckland and Wellington both experiencing a notable decline in the total number of children.  A key implication is that the growth in housing demand over the next 3-5 years will skew more towards smaller non-family dwellings, suitable for singles and couples. 

Regions with low-cost housing continue to attract strong growth:

The high-cost regions have experienced a declining share of national growth, and conversely the more affordable locations have continued to attract a greater share of national growth.  Auckland achieved 29% of national population growth in 2023, 5 percentage points down from its 2018 level, of 34%.  Wellington also experienced a decline, from 8% in 2018 to 5% in 2023, a 3 percentage point decline.  Conversely, the more affordable locations experienced an increasing share of national growth.  For example, Christchurch achieved 17% of total growth in 2023, up from 13% in 2018, and Waikato achieved 14% of total growth in 2023, up from 12% in 2018.  This overall shows a national ‘flight to affordability’.  A key implication is that locations that offer affordable housing are likely to experience increasing housing demand over the coming years. 

Dwelling construction surges:

For the 5-year period ending 2023, New Zealand experienced 580 new dwellings per 1,000 additional residents.  This was significantly up on 5-year period ending 2018, which experienced 290 new dwellings per 1,000 new residents.  By comparison, Australia currently builds 460 dwellings per 1,000 new residents, Canada 470 and the USA 390.  These overseas benchmarks indicate New Zealand may see a decline in the number of dwellings per 1,000 new residents in the next few years, however this is likely to be offset by the increasing number of international migrants.  A key driver of New Zealand’s recent increase in dwelling construction, is the freeing up of regulation that now allows terrace and apartments in central and middle suburbs, which has meant more people are able to access housing that better meets their needs. 

Auckland’s inner and central population declines, and greenfield population grows:

The Auckland Unitary Plan seeks a compact city, with growth directed to the central and inner suburbs, rather than peripheral greenfield locations.  While there has been significant terrace and apartment construction in the central and inner suburbs, the population has been relatively static, or in some cases has declined.  By contrast, the greenfield locations, such as Rodney and Franklin, have experienced significant population growth.  Overall, the inner and central suburbs increased by around 4,000 people (5% of all growth), whereas the middle and peripheral suburbs increased by 80,000 people (95% of all growth), over the 2018-2023 period.  The likely reason for this is larger family houses in the central and inner suburbs, are transitioning from family to ‘empty nester’ households, meaning they are dropping from 4-5 people to 1-2 people.  By contrast, the young adults moving out of these households, are relocating to more affordable housing, on the periphery.  A key implication for property developers is that Auckland will continue to see strong growth in the peripheral greenfield locations, due to the relative affordability offered. 

Population growth slows due to reduced international migration following Covid:

Over the 2018-2023 period New Zealand’s population increased by 58,800 per annum.  By contrast, over the 2013-2018 period, New Zealand’s population increased by 91,500 per annum.  This can in large part be attributed to international migration being near to zero, for the 2021-2022 period, which typically accounts for around two thirds of New Zealand’s total population growth.  With international migration back to its normal levels, growth over the next few years is expected to continue to be strong, at around 70,000 per annum.  This will strengthen the housing market, with increasing demand for new dwellings.  

If you would like to know more about the key demographic drivers in your region, contact us to discuss how our Demographic Insights for Developers regional reports can support the marketing and sales success of your project.